Coronavirus and the future of music

The global pandemic is about to hit the music business hard. With a lack of live shows, what can artists and their teams do to maintain a living?

Before I dive into the nitty-gritty of what the coronavirus means for music, I want to add some explanations of what it means for all of us. A good place to start is Liz Specht’s thread on the exponential nature of the outbreak and its effect on our healthcare systems.

She starts off with an assumption of cases doubling every 6 days. Starting from a conservative estimate of 2,000 cases in the US today, that means 1 million by the end of April, 2 million around May 5, 4 million by May 11, etc. If ~10% of these cases need hospitalization, then all open hospital beds in the US will be filled by May 8. If only 5% of these cases need it, then that date changes to May 14.

There are lessons we’ve learned from past outbreaks, like the Spanish flu.

With containment and cancelations of gatherings, we can make the crisis more manageable for the healthcare system. The goal would be to keep the number of infections, somehow, below the healthcare system’s maximum capacity, as this image by Thomas Splettstösser indicates:

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SXSW is just the beginning

What I am trying to highlight is that it’s just a matter of time until governments decide to prohibit more forms of public gatherings (Italy’s government is preparing a decree to ban public events with high concentration of people across the entire country, France has banned gatherings of more than 1,000, etc.).

With the most effective strategy to reduce the spread being isolation, including self-isolation, how many people will still be able to even come out to gigs once July hits (est. 20-70% of global population infected)? So we have to consider the possibility of full cancelations of tours, shows, etc.

Luckily the infrastructure for a more resilient music business is here. It has been here for many years, but it’s underutilized.

Resilience is in the networks

Years ago, as I was completing my Bachelor’s degree in Communication, I tried to figure out what had gone so wrong for music and what strategies artists & teams could employ to maintain revenue. I studied piracy, but it seemed like a pointless ‘problem’ to focus on, because no individual artist can ‘solve’ that in a way that would meaningfully bring them significant revenues. So I dug deeper.

The problem definition focused around the networked nature of our current media landscape. It has been the enabler of piracy, but also more broadly speaking of networked communication. It has enabled a shift from channels to less linear models of communication through communities that intersect and share nodes.

In the solution section of my thesis, I took those principles and explored how they can be utilized by artists in order to make a new type of living that depends less on the record sale. In short: make yourself part of your fan base, understand who these people are, and develop exciting things that people want (or as I framed it: get people to thank you for the opportunity to spend their money on something you’re selling).

In those late-MySpace days and early days of Facebook and Spotify, I imagined a new music business emerging. Just… it didn’t really come about. At least not in the way and scale I imagined.

In part, crowdfunding is hard and so is developing products or services besides your music (whether merch or something less common). It’s a different type of operation. So it’s been optional. Let alone membership-type crowdfunding models of which Patreon is a good example. In an interview with Cherie Hu last year, Patreon’s SVP of Product Wyatt Jenkins had this to say about musicians and why music isn’t a top-2 category on the platform yet:

“All of their other revenue streams look, sound and act really differently from a membership. They’re coming from gigs, they’re coming from sales of music, touring — you know, all these other lines of revenue for musicians are these spiky, hustle-based lines of business”

Now, I believe we’ve reached a point where for many people it’s not optional. How do we cover lost live revenue?

What life looks like, locked inside our homes

So here’s the good news paragraph. I know for anyone except perhaps the most introverted the above heading doesn’t sound like good news, but hear me out.

For the creative sectors, right now, there is a big emerging opportunity in people sitting at home, being bored out of their minds. Expect usage of streaming media to go up in the next months. It’s hard to say whether that will translate into more subscriptions due to economic anxiety, though perhaps initially we’ll see a spike there too (thanks for raising the topic, LIAS). Previous research by MIDiA warned of streaming subscriptions’ vulnerability in a recession due to it being so easy to cancel.

In China, this has meant that its biggest promoter, Modern Sky, has been streaming live performances from past Strawberry Music Festival editions.

Here’s some expectations for coming months:

  • Channels with visible music experiences on Twitch and YouTube, e.g. Boiler Room and COLORS, are going to see a jump in viewers;
  • We’ll see musicians recording more video content, and a mix of Patreon-style membership models and livestreams (you can use membership models to paywall communities to livestream to, see: Ben Folds, Pentatonix);
  • I imagine some festivals will try to generate digital revenue in some similar form;
  • We might see younger startups manage to make significant strides forward, such as Patreon-style playlist service Currents.fm, and who knows, maybe social music experiences such as Endlesss when they launch.

It’s going to be a rough year nevertheless. Support each other.

Wash your hands. Don’t touch your face.

Stay calm. Stay informed.

Building a music community with Instagram stories

Last week I announced the launch of Hard Dance Berlin. Since then, I have been spending a few minutes each day building up the community around it by leveraging Instagram stories (@harddanceberlin).

I hope by highlighting some of the activities, you’ll find some inspiration for how to grow your own projects.

Goal & tools

The Instagram account is very much an extension of the project’s main site. The goal being to highlight performers and events in Berlin’s harder and faster styles of electronic music.

Instagram is a place where people interested in this already spend their time – as opposed to a random new site – and a tool many of them use to discover events and music.

Stories’ ephemeral nature make it easy to drip interesting content for this community every day.

Key principle: support, support, support

In general, whenever you create something, make sure it solves problems whether they’re your own or other people’s. This should be your primary goal and activity. This is how you shape something valuable. Look for problems; solve them.

Give more than you take. If you ask for anything in the beginning, then ask people to help you help them. In my case that means soliciting promo material, images, etc. so I can better promote other people’s events to the community.

The ethos is: support, support, support – the music, the people, the parties and the scenes. Double down on your ethos early on, because things can get muddy later on and there’s always a risk of believing in your own hype once things take off.

This also makes it easier for people to join and help the community: if there is growth potential in an area, the goal should be to grow everything. If one part of the community grows stronger, we all grow stronger.

Method & content

Here are the types of content I currently post to serve the community. I’ll highlight for each one how they help to grow the Instagram:

  • Short-term highlights (“check out this party tonight”)
  • Longer-term highlights (“next week xyz”, “just announced next month: x”)
  • Music highlights (“check out the new mix by xyz”)

Short-term highlights

When focusing on events, I try to do the following things:

  • Share a picture from the promoter or venue’s Instagram timeline. This helps connect the community to people active in the scene, and it also sends a notification to the account holder and allows them to repost the story to their own stories (in turn giving @harddanceberlin more exposure).
  • Tag as many (relevant) people as possible (the event’s performers, promoter, venue, etc). This again provides value for fans to understand what’s going on and helps them check stuff out, but it also means your story can now be shared by anyone who was tagged.
  • Location tags. Tagging to a location increases your discoverability for people checking out stories around that area. To be honest, I consider this optional as it usually just gives 1 or 2 more views per story and I’m not sure if it has lead to follows. Sometimes you can get lucky and get hundreds of views though.
  • Add the MUSIC one might expect at the event to the story. It’s an important service to the community using the stories to determine whether to investigate an event, but if it’s music by one of the performers, it also makes it more likely they’ll repost your story.

The ‘growth hacking’ term is leveraging “other people’s audience” (OPA).

Longer-term highlights

Longer term highlights focus on events from about a week or so out. It follows a very similar approach as the shorter term highlights, incl. tagging the performers. This allows people from out of town to repost your story to announce to their fans that they’re going to be in town. It also means you can build up some extra hype for particularly interesting events and line-ups.

The above screenshots also indicate how it only takes me a few minutes per day: for story 1, the artwork was sent to me by the promoter. For story 2, I just reposted one of the promoters’ announcements. For story 3, I made a screenshot of the Resident Advisor calendar I maintain and cropped out irrelevant stuff.

Music highlights

On weekdays with zero events (Berlin can be wild and last week actually had a relevant event every night of the week), I’ll highlight music of local producers, DJs, labels, collectives, etc.

Currently about 50% of all followers see the account’s stories. That’s a high engagement rate and I want to keep it there, so ideally I have something for people daily. It’s also important to keep the growth momentum up. I’ll explain why next.

Instagram account discovery

Alright. So, someone I tagged reposted a story. What now?

I tend to go for really clear names when naming projects. MUSIC x TECH x FUTURE is exactly the scope of the content; it’s what I want to talk and think about. MUSIC x GREEN was actually going to be called MUSIC x SUSTAINABILITY, but the latter word was annoying to type out in a URL. So this is called Hard Dance Berlin – a bit tricky SEO-wise since a big YouTube music channel has done an event in this city by that name once, but it explains exactly what the project is about.

So when somebody sees the account name when content is reposted, it’s pretty self-explanatory that if you tap on the story and go to the profile, you’re going to get more of hard dance in the context of Berlin.

So here’s what you’ll see:

And that’s it. Within two weeks, I should have it organically at 100 highly relevant and engaged followers. By summer, I think I can hit 1k. Should I do some paid promotion, that can go a lot faster. The upside of something as niche as this, is that it is easy to know where to find your audience when targeting ads.

Maybe it seems highly tactical, or whatever, but the reason why I spend my spare time on it is because of the love for the music.

Not everything can be done online! I’m too old now to visit all of the events, but I try to make sure to go to a decent portion of them, speak to some people, etc. and also play sometimes. This has helped me get some early visibility with friends following and resharing some of the content.

I hope the above has been helpful and insightful, and not just blowing my own horn.

If there’s just one takeaway, let it be this: always give more than you take.

Announcing Hard Dance Berlin (or: fostering local scenes in an age of austerity, gentrification and climate change)

Settling in Berlin to work in classical music at IDAGIO (from which I have since moved on), I was pleased to find out that the city’s nightlife is also host to a great variety of harder styles of dance music.

Having been born in The Netherlands, I was practically spoon-fed gabber music. Maybe not by my parents, but by friends and their older siblings, music television, and the last 20-30 minutes of practically every school dance (click here for an example of one of the tracks popular among young & old back then). Hardcore, as it’s also called, was everywhere.

After moving to Berlin, I’d go out and explore different scenes every now and then. I read books about the history of the city’s subcultures, their music, their styles, and how they came together after the Wall fell (if there’s one book I can recommend, it’s Paul HockenosBerlin Calling – unrelated to the film by the same title). When you read about things like this, it can feel like you have arrived too late. I felt it again when I read the book, just like how I felt when I first started researching the origins of house music and the free party culture. Back then I wished I’d been an adult when all that happened, so I could have participated.

In the case of Berlin however, that feeling turned into something else. And here’s what you should know if you’ve ever shared that feeling I just described: you ARE participating. You CAN make something that people are going to miss in the future. Starting may be the hardest part.

Oops. Where was I?

Ah yes, as I became more of a participant in Berlin’s music cultures, I started noticing something. Hard dance was surging once more. People are extremely excited about these sounds. Hardcore, hardstyle, hardtechno, breakcore, donk… Throw in a tune like that in your house or techno set and people go wild – a temporary voyage. But some scenes, particularly parts of the techno scene, started taking a more long-term journey into hard dance. Yet the scenes aren’t mixing. I don’t see the techno people at hardstyle parties, and if the techno crowds throw a hardstyle night, I don’t see any of the people from those scenes.* They’re vaguely aware of each other’s existence, but that’s about it.

So I figured: let’s map this out. Let’s list all the performers. Link their Soundclouds. Try to identify all the parties. Let’s get people listening to each other. Remove the boundaries of genres and scenes, so we can just focus on the textures, tempos, and energies of each other’s music.

That directory is now live, and lives on harddanceberlin.com. 💥

There is also a calendar on Resident Advisor and an Instagram (@harddanceberlin) which I use to highlight events through the stories feature (by far the most important platform for music, IMO – it’s really attaining Myspace levels – I’m not on boomerbook though, so my perspective may be skewed).

Local resistance: dealing with austerity, gentrification, and climate change

I hope to see more local projects. They’re so important.

Music is under pressure globally. To keep things local in context: over the past 10 years around a 100 clubs have had to close in Berlin. This is why Berlin’s Clubcommission is fighting to give nightlife venues the same status as opera houses. Austerity and gentrification are threats to the scenes, so if you care about what’s going on where you are: invest. Help promote and build audiences. Support local artists. And if you can afford it, then use guest lists to skip the queue, but still pay an entrance fee to support the venue & artists.

Another reason why it’s important to support local artists: more local gigs means they’ll have to travel less to make a living and more local talent means it becomes easier to put events together without having to fly someone over.

Air travel is bound to become more expensive through ‘Green Deals’ being discussed in Europe and the US. Further austerity might hit our music scenes still. So better start building.

All we need is some space. And this we can create for each other.

(small disclaimer: Hard Dance Berlin has no relation to the brand that’s known for filming DJ sets and putting them on YouTube, who threw a one-off event by the same name. The term has been around for a long time, and I like straightforward names for my projects.)

*big respect to some parties who actually have managed to attain some scene crossover.

How music must construct new narratives around environmental protection

Alternative title: if you can sell a Dutch guy a bicycle helmet, music can make giving a damn about the environment a lot cooler.

I made a major step last week.

After 30ish years of cycling, I finally bought a bike helmet.

I had always considered helmets inconvenient and geeky. In The Netherlands, where I grew up, nobody wears bike helmets. Well, maybe people on race bikes, but most people cycle on what is affectionally referred to as “omafietsen” (old lady bikes).

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Sure, I have lived in places where I wouldn’t consider cycling without a helmet, like Moscow, Sofia, and Istanbul. In those situations I would choose not to cycle at all.

Now I live in Berlin – much more bike-friendly than those other places. I’d say about a third of all cyclists wear helmets here, although personally I didn’t. Having friends with helmets made me decide to learn more about the likeliness of getting into accidents as a cyclist and how a helmet reduces your chances of serious damage. The numbers tell a clear story, but didn’t convince me. They made me more vocal about traffic safety and creating more room for cyclists, but it didn’t throw the geeky stigma off of bike helmets that had been attached to them for all my life.

One day I cycled to a large climate protest – helmet-free (go on… let’s say my hair was flowing in the wind). I parked my bike near the protest and walked to the rally point. It was huge. Thousands of people. Scientists, game developers, feminists, antifascists, christians, communists, fashion designers, teachers, refugees, environmentalists, school children. They carried banners identifying who they are and why they’re protesting.

As I walked around to explore the groups and causes, mixed in was a small percentage of people were carrying bike helmets. Like me, they had also come to the protest by bike. They were cyclists, too.

In this context, cycling seemed like an activity of defiance. A personal act of reducing one’s climate impact in a system and city that still has a long way to go before it can truly be considered cycling-friendly. I saw them. I knew we that we found some of the same things important. Safer streets, more room for bikes, less cars in the inner city, more room for everyone on the streets – whether they own a car or not.

The bike helmet transformed.

From a geeky safety object, to an object that communicates identity. Having to carry it around when you’re not cycling transformed from a burden and inconvenience to a way to parade something you find important. A way to “be” a cyclist, even when you’re not cycling.

Suddenly I got it: helmets are cool.

A few weeks later I bought a helmet.

Creating narratives & holding each other to account

We are facing a climate emergency. It manifests in many ways and seems overwhelmingly difficult to address. It’s a struggle of energy, waste, pollution, economy, ecology. It’s also a struggle of culture.

This is where music has a unique role to play, alongside other expressions of culture.

Climate change and the environmental struggle have many helmets.

Planting trees is considered as something for ‘hippies’. Recycling is something for soy yoghurt yoga moms. Picking up waste from streets or nature is considered dirty, because “eww trash”.

Addressing the climate emergency will require lifestyle change. We need to normalize the above things and many more. What better force than creativity and personality.

There is a lot of concern about artists and brands jumping on sustainability, because it’s trending. Even if so, it’s a trend that won’t go away, and will only intensify as the symptoms of our changing climate do the same. One musician to recently draw such a response was Peggy Gou, who posted a video of her taking some trash from a beach in Bali on her Instagram.

People rightfully suggested she consider her carbon footprint – which as a popular DJ is considerable. Some people even wondered whether it’s genuine care or just jumping on a popular topic. With regards to the last part: it doesn’t matter right now.

  • Let’s normalize picking up trash. Let’s remove the stigma that it’s dirty. You can use gloves and wash your hands afterwords. We need to see way more celebrities doing this. Change the narrative.
  • When companies or individuals get vocal about these topics, it’s easier to hold them to account. Not doing enough can hurt your reputation and your business. So let people speak out, let them pose… but then let’s not forget what they said – we should hold them to it.

Later this year, I intend to check in on some of the artists, individuals and companies that signed the Music Declares Emergency pledge. We need to celebrate the ones that do well, and embarrass the ones that don’t take their pledge seriously, so that they get into action.

Maybe let that be a warning: if you have said you “commit to taking urgent action” and “work towards making our businesses ecologically sustainable and regenerative” I’m going to check in on that (and hopefully I am not alone). There is nothing ambiguous about urgent.

If you’re thinking: “oh my.. that’s right.. It’s been months. We need to spring into action.. Where to start?” go to the Actions section of the pledge you’ve signed. It has guides for all aspects of the business. You can also reach out to me and I see if I can do anything to help, as long as you pay it forward.

Just don’t lose sight of the two aspects where we can do something that matters: 1) within the industry by making our operations more sustainable and regenerative, and 2) beyond the industry by inspiring narratives that turn helmets into items of rebellion, that turn something people considered as “not me” into “cool”.

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What if iTunes didn’t happen the way it did?

We all love to think “what if…”

What if Napster had managed to get its legal issues resolved? Would there be a Spotify now? What ecosystem would have emerged?

Last week I listened to a podcast interview between Tim Ferriss and Tony Fadell (“the father of the iPod”). They went into a piece of music tech history I wasn’t familiar with. Turns out iTunes launched as a somewhat re-engineered version of a startup’s software Apple acquired. This startup was called SoundJam and they had made some music software that would run on Macs, and could sync libraries with Rio music players. There’s a screenshot of it below and it kind of reminds me of WinAmp which I avidly used until Spotify came around. Note the chrome UI element which was characteristic for iTunes for a long time.

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But there was another company Spotify was looking into acquiring. They were called Panic and developed a player named Audion. Also similar to WinAmp, it was more feature-rich than SoundJam and counted skins and visualizations among its features.

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Audion didn’t end up getting acquired by Apple, because they never ended up meeting. The Audion team was already in talks with AOL and wanted to bring them together with Apple for a meeting. That meeting got canceled when AOL couldn’t make it, and that was the end of that.

The team behind SoundJam became the first developers to work on iTunes and after being lead developer for iTunes, one of SoundJam’s creators is now Apple’s VP of consumer applications.

Every product has a philosophy behind it and sometimes this philosophy can change the interfaces of a whole space. Look at how Tinder changed dating with its left-right swipe interface: not only a newcomer like Bumble decided to go for that, but so did the incumbent OkCupid. Or take Snapchat and the way its format influenced Instagram Stories and TikTok. This happens in music too, where some of the biggest influences can be traced back to IRC and Napster.

I think iTunes’ legacy is playlists. It really put the playlist front and center, which later on was also at the base of early Spotify. Spotify initially had no way to save artists or albums: you could star tracks and drag stuff into playlists. That was it.

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It makes me so curious: if Apple had acquired Audion instead of SoundJam, would iTunes have been playlist-centric? Would the unbundling of the album have come about in the same way? Would we have the same type of ‘playlist economy’ as we see now?

If you’re curious to see what iTunes looked like upon launch, here’s a video of Steve Jobs demoing it (from 4:32 – excuse the pixels, we’re digging deep into YouTube’s archives):

Another obscure bit of Apple / iTunes history: watch Steve Jobs present the Motorola iTunes phone.

The global music business in the 2020s 🔮

In this post I’d like to highlight one of my favourite newsletters, Exponential View by Azeem Azhar, look at his predictions for the next 10 years and how they apply to the music business.

Azhar’s 10 forecasts are as follows:

  • Climate change will be the dominant narrative
  • Our geopolitics will continue to fragment and this will result in more conflict
  • In what we have generally thought of as the West, we’ll rethink the shape and purpose of our economies
  • We’ll see the rise of new digital commons, economic institutions that are neither public- nor private- sector
  • World trade will face a troika of headwinds
  • Cities will become relatively more important
  • We’ll eat far less meat
  • The big tech companies, particularly Facebook, Google and Amazon, will work aggressively to increase their footprint
  • AI will be everywhere
  • During the 2020s there will be a generational shift

Quite a lot to unpack. Let’s dig in.

Music x Climate Change 🌬️

Azhar mentions cheap renewables, smart entrepreneurs and net zero targets becoming enshrined in law in the EU and UK. The Supreme Court of The Netherlands recently required the government to slash carbon emissions by 25% of 1990 levels by the end of 2020.

Through initiatives like Music Declares Emergency, it has become visible that there is a broad willingness and desire in the music business to do better in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, waste, circularity, and general sustainability. As various organisations in music set up comissions related to sustainability, 2020 will bring wide cross-industry discussions and exchange on this topic, including pilot projects, and other initiatives.

By 2021, the topic of sustainability in music will be ‘the new normal’ and instead of a niche subject, I expect it will be a discussion point at every industry conference.

(In case you missed it, I recently launched MUSIC x GREEN as a directory to help gather and organise all information related to this topic)

Music x Geopolitics 🗺️

The growing economies of China and India, the rise of African economies, a post-Brexit world, and what about Russia? The 20s are going to be complicated.

While it’s hard to make predictions, an annecdote may shed light on the type of complications to expect.

A few years ago, I lived in Moscow where I headed up product for Zvooq, a music streaming service. At some point Spotify started negotiating with local music services and telcos and hired local staff. Months went by and we heard rumours Spotify was having trouble getting everything in place from their usual playbook for launching in new countries (major components at that time: majority of local content, plus a bundling deal with a top telco). Then the annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine happened, sanctions followed. There was talk of cutting Russia off from global banking by blocking Russia from the SWIFT transaction system. In the midst of all of that, Spotify decided to cease operations. The exact reasons are unclear, but the geopolitical complications may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. Too much risk. (To date Spotify still hasn’t launched in Russia, although there are signs that a launch is imminent)

What may further complicate things for the streaming dominated music industry is the fracturing of the internet into “four, or more, internets”. There is the classical Sillicon Valley model of an open internet with which we’re all familiar. In the EU, we’ve seen increased assertiveness from governments and courts in regulating the internet, whether that’s about the ‘right to be forgotten’, GDPR, and aspects like article 11 and 13. There is the Chinese internet – based on the promotion of its own tech giants operating within its tightly controlled environment. Russia has recently been experimenting with cutting itself off from the global internet and is claiming a successful trial.

To make things more complicated, many of the major music companies have geographically complex ownerships. Most recently, Chinese tech giant Tencent acquired a 10% stake in Universal Music (see chart by Cherie Hu).

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Last thing I want to highlight before moving on: streaming in India is growing at a very rapid pace. Gaana announced 125 million monthly active users, Spotify is at 2 million users, and YouTube and YouTube Music Premium count 800,000 subscribers. Meanwhile the Chinese ByteDance, mother company of TikTok, is testing its own streaming service called Resso out in India.

Music x Mission-Driven States ⏩

Azhar imagines states to take a more active role in directing investments in tech and shaping our societies. He expects a departure from the economic Friedman doctrine, and for states to apply more action towards giving our economies a clearer purpose. As defined by Marianna Mazzucato:

“Rather than focusing on particular sectors – as in traditional industrial policy – mission-oriented policy focuses on problem-specific societal challenges, which many different sectors interact to solve. The focus on problems, and new types of collaborations between public and private actors to solve them, creates the potential for greater spillovers than a sectoral approach. It was this approach that put a man on the moon, and lay behind the creation of the Internet and entire new sectors like biotechnology, nanotechnology, and the emerging green technology revolution. It is not enough to fix market and system failures: policy-makers need to be more future focused, creating and shaping new markets.”

Expect innovation in the problem areas addressed in the other 9 points here. Music will be on the sidelines initially, but the impact of the innovations (e.g. around AI) may end up redefining our industry – much in the same way as the internet eventually did.

Music x Digital Commons ⛓️

The last years have seen a lot of discussion about platform economy and privacy. Think the Facebook / Cambridge Analytica scandal, think of leaks of user data, and think of the rise of AI which makes people’s data more valuable (and vulnerable to exploitation).

A proposed concept is the ‘data trust’ – a mechanism, organisation, or legal structure, that stores data and provides rule based interoperability with platforms. This trust should specialise in data governance for maximum public benefit.

A new framework for data governance

In other words, we may be moving away from the current platform-driven reality of the web (2.0), towards something where individual users have more control and security. This would impact any company heavily relying on training algorithms with user data – such as ones that heavily rely on serving ads (Facebook, Google / YouTube, Spotify).

It may also create more transparency around who’s involved with the music, as envisioned in Imogen Heap’s Mycelia initiative, which is supported by IHAN – a promising fair data economy project of Finnish innovation fund Sitra.

Music x Global Headwinds 📦

Azhar highlights the falling global trade-to-GDP ratio, a trend that is already occurring. At the end of the decade, we’ll see a lower trade in raw materials and manufactures relative to GDP than current. I’m struggling to connect this to music, to be honest. It could be that more of our GDP comes from services rather than physical goods. Someone with more knowledge of this topic than I: please fill me in. If you write an article, I’m happy to share it in the next newsletter.

Music x Cities 🌆

Continued urbanisation will bring more challenges, but also great opportunities. What comes to mind is the Music Cities initiative by Sound Diplomacy. Besides regular events about the importance of thriving local music scenes, they work together with local governments to develop local music infrastructure.

Music Cities Guide Assets Method

As certain population centers get more expensive, we see young talent choosing to settle in places other than Sillicon Valley, New York, London, etc. As someone living in Berlin, it’s obvious that music can play a crucial role in attracting unique talent to a city. Should we anticipate cities investing more in this space? I think so.

Music x Meat 🍖

A trend mostly unrelated to the music business, although it’s worth pointing out that music festivals are often used to trial new types of food, from seaweed burgers to insects.

Music x Big Tech 🌐

“By 2030, a complex patchwork of settlements in different geographies will govern the behaviours of [Facebook, Google, and Amazon].” Leading up to that, Azhar expects these firms to agressively hoover up data and move into new arenas. Google is firmly established in the entertainment space through YouTube, Amazon has a good foothold in music streaming due to its Alexa devices, and Facebook is crucial for many reasons – to pick one, it owns two of the most important platforms for artists to connect to their fans (Facebook and Instagram).

I expect these companies to double down on this space, as well as invest in new forms of AI driven music, as they have less of a stake in the traditional songwriter / performer type music than many of the players in the music business. While the music industry will be careful not to cannabilize itself with this new form of entertainment, I expect outside forces to play a very disruptive role. For them, the value in music as we know it lies with the personalities it produces, less so with the way the music actually comes about. Which brings us to the next topic.

Music x AI 🧠

“Our computers will use machine vision, listening, path planning and robotics to build an increasingly accurate digital twin of the real world, and bringing smart, adaptive products into the real world.”

Last decade was the decade of the smartphone. Next decade will be the decade of augmented and mixed reality. With that, we’ll see a third generation of digital music.

It’s important that you think of all these things in combined contexts: Google Glass without smart environments and AI was just creepy and not that useful. Since the launch of Google Glass in 2014, the number of connected ‘Internet of Things’ devices has doubled to around 27 billion. By 2025 that number is expected to be somewhere around 75 billion.

That’s the context in which the next phase of digital music will play out. We’ll see a great convergence bringing together trends in AI, gaming, esports, entertainment, augmented, mixed, and virtual reality, and smart environments through the Internet of Things.

Music x Generational Shift 🚸

People who have spent their college years and careers online will move into global leadership. We’ll see a lot of the world’s influence fall into the hands of people who can be described as digital natives. This will affect policy, which affects the music industry broadly.

“The agitators and the creators of our economy for the next decade are between 15 and 25 now.”

Luckily, this is something the business has mastered over many decades.

The bigger question, looking at all of the above is: is the music industry ready to disrupt itself?

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