What is the next record? Moving beyond the recording industry

What will the next format be to usher in a new music industry, like the record did in the 20th century?

The 20th century saw the rise of consumerist culture as a response to mass production causing supply to outgrow consumer demand. An example of this phenomenon is 20th century fashion which became highly cyclical (and wasteful), marketing new clothes for every season. After World War II, it became common to use clothing to express oneself through styles and fashions which often went hand-in-hand with music subcultures, just think of hippies, skinheads and punk music, hiphop, funk, or disco.

“Our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfaction and our ego satisfaction in consumption. We need things consumed, burned up, worn out, replaced and discarded at an ever-increasing rate.”
Victor Lebow (Journal of Retailing, Spring 1955)

Consumerism helped turn the recording industry into the most powerful part of the music business ecosystem, something which had previously been dominated by publishers. It changed music. The record player moved into the living room, then every room of the house, and the walkman (now smartphone) put music into every pocket. Music gained and lost qualities along the way.

Previously, it had been common for middle class families to have a piano in the home. Music was a social activity; music was alive. If you wanted to hear your favourite song, it would sound slightly different every time. With the recording, music became static and sounded the same way every time. And the shared songs of our culture were displaced by corporate-controlled pop music. People stopped playing the piano; and creators and ‘consumers’ became more clearly distinguished culturally.

With streaming, we are reaching the final stage of this development. Have a look at the above Victor Lebow quote and tell me streaming does not contribute to music being worn out, replaced and discarded at an ever-increasing rate.

The rules of mass production don’t apply to music anymore, since it’s no longer about pressing recordings: anything can be copied & distributed infinitely on the web. The democratisation of music production has turned many ‘consumers’ into creators again. Perhaps this started with drum computers, which helped kick off two of today’s fastest growing genres in the 70s and 80s: hiphop and house music. Today, this democratisation has turned our smartphones into music studios, with producers of worldwide hits making songs on their iPhones.

We see more people producing music, our Soundcloud feeds are constantly updated, Spotify‘s algorithms send new music out to us through daily mixes, Discover Weekly, Release Radar, Fresh Finds, and we now have the global phenomenon of New Music Fridays. With this massive amount of new music, we are simply not connecting to music in the same way as we did when music was scarce. We move on faster. As a result, music services, music providers essentially, place a big emphasis on music discovery as a result. We shift from the age of mass media, and mass production, to something more complex: many-to-many, and decentralised (music) production on a massive scale.

Has consumerism broken music culture? I don’t think so. As a matter of fact, consumerism is also what producers of music creation software and hardware depend on, which contributes to the democratisation of music and returning musical participation to the days of the piano as the default music playback device.

If streaming is the final stage of the age of the recording, then what’s next?

Embedded deep in the cultures of hiphop and house music, we can see what cultural values are important to the age of democratised music creation. Both genres heavily sampled disco and funk early on in their lifecycles. One of the most famous samples in hiphop and electronic music culture is the Amen Break. With the advent of the sampler, the drum break of the Winston‘s Amen Brother became widespread and instrumental to the birth and development of subgenres of electronic music in the 90s.

Not so long ago, ‘remix culture’ was still a notion one could discuss in abstract terms, for instance in the open-source documentary RiP!: A Remix Manifesto which discussed the topic at length. Things have changed fast however, turning the formerly abstract into a daily reality for many.

Since the documentary’s release in 2008, social networks have boomed. Back then, only 24% of the US population was active on social media, but now that’s ~80%. With the increasing socialisation of the web, as well as it being easier to manipulate images, we saw an explosion of internet memes, typically in the form of image macros which can be adjusted to fit new contexts or messages.

The same is happening to music through ‘Soundcloud culture’. Genres are born fast through remix, and people iterate on new ideas rapidly. A recent example of such a genre is moombahton which is now one of the driving sounds behind today’s pop music.

Snapchat filters and apps like Musically let users playing around with music and placing ourselves in the context of the song. Teens nowadays are not discovering music by some big budget music video broadcasted to them on MTV, they are discovering it by seeing their friend dance to it on Musically.

Music is becoming interactive, and adaptable to context.

Matching consumer trends and expectations with technology

Perhaps music is one of the first fields in which consumerist culture has hit a dead end, making it necessary for it to evolve to something beyond itself. People increasingly expect interactivity, since expressing yourself just by the music you listen to is not enough anymore to express identity.

Music production is getting easier. If combined with internet meme culture, it makes sense for people to use music for jokes or to make connections by making pop culture references through sampling. Vaporwave is a great example. But also internet rave things like this:

Instead of subcultures uniting behind bands and icons, they can now participate in setting the sound of its genre, creating a more customised type of sound that is more personally relevant to the listener and creator.

Artificial intelligence will make it even easier to quickly create music and remixes. Augmented reality, heavily emphasized in Apple’s latest product release, is basically remix as a medium. When AI, augmented reality, and the internet of things converge, our changing media culture will speed up to form new types of contexts for music.

That’s where the future of music lies. Not in the static recording, but in the adaptive. The recording industry that rose from the record looked nothing like the publishing industry. It latched on to the trend of consumerism and created a music industry of a scale never seen before. Now that we’ve reached peak-consumerism, and are at the final phase of the cycle for the static recording, there’s room for something new and adaptive. And like with the recording business before, the music business that will rise from adaptive media will look nothing like the current music industry.

The next 3 interfaces for music’s near future

Our changing media reality means everyone in music will have to come to grips with three important new trends.

Understanding the music business means understanding how people access, discover, and continuously listen to music. This used to be the record player, cassette player, radio, cd player, and now increasingly happens on our computers and smartphones. First by playing downloads in media players like WinampMusicmatch Jukebox, or iTunes, but now mostly via streaming services like Spotify, Apple Music, but also YouTube.

Whenever the interface for music changes, the rules of the game change. New challenges emerge, new players get to access the space, and those to best leverage the new media reality gain a significant lead over competing services or companies, like Spinnin Records‘ early YouTube success.

What is a media reality?

I was recently talking with Gigi Johnson, the Executive Director of the UCLA Center for Music Innovation, for their podcast, and as we were discussing innovation, I wanted to point out two different types of innovation. There is technological innovation, like invention, but you don’t have to be a scientist or an inventor to be innovative.

When the aforementioned categories of innovations get rolled out, they create new realities. Peer-to-peer technology helped Spotify with the distribution of music early on (one of their lead engineers is Ludvig Strigeus, creator of BitTorrent client utorrent), and for this to work, Spotify needed a media reality in which computers were linked to each other in networks with decent bandwidth (ie. the internet).

So that’s the second type of innovation: leveraging a reality created by the proliferation of a certain technology. Studios didn’t have to invent the television in order to dominate the medium. Facebook didn’t have to invent the world wide web.

A media reality is any reality in which innovation causes a shift to a new type of media. Our media reality is increasingly shifting towards smart assistants like Siri, an ‘internet of things’ (think smart home), and we’re creating, watching, and interacting through more high quality video than ever before.

Any new media reality brings with it new interfaces through which people interact with knowledge, their environment, friends, entertainment, and whatever else might be presented through these interfaces. So let’s look at the new interfaces everyone in music will have to deal with in the coming years.

Chatbots are the new apps

People don’t download as many apps as they used to and it’s getting harder to get people to install an app. According to data by comScore, most smartphone users now download fewer than 1 app per month.

So, in dealing with this new media reality, you go to where the audience is. Apparently that’s no longer in app stores, but on social networks and messaging apps. Some of the latter, and most prominently Facebook Messenger, allow for people to build chatbots, which are basically apps inside the messenger.

Companies like TransferwiseCNNAdidasNike, and many airlines already have their own bots running on Messenger. In music, well-known examples of artist chatbots are those by Katy Perry and DJ HardwellRecord Bird, a company specialized in surfacing new releases by artists you like, launched their own bot on messenger in 2016.

The challenge with chatbots is that designing for a conversational interface is quite different from designing visual user interfaces. Sometimes people will not understand what’s going on and start requesting things from your bot that you may not have anticipated. Such behaviours need to be anticipated, since people can not see the confines of the interface.

Chatbots are set to improve a lot over time, as developments in machine learning and artificial intelligence will help the systems behind the interfaces to interpret what users may mean and come up with better answers.

VUIs: Alexa, play me music from… uhmm….

I’ve been living with an Amazon Echo for over a month and together with my Philips Hue lamps it has imbedded itself into my life to the extent that I nearly asked Alexa, Amazon‘s voice assistant, to turn off the lights in a hotel room last weekend.

It’s been a pleasure to trade in the frequent returns to touch-based user interfaces for voice user interfaces (VUIs). I thought I’d feel awkward, but it’s great to quickly ask for weather updates, planned activities, the time, changing music, changing the volume, turning the lights on or off or dimming them, setting alarms, etc. without having to grab my phone.

I also thought it would be awkward having friends over and interacting with it, but it turns into a type of play, with friends trying out all kinds of requests I had never even thought of, and finding out about new features I wasn’t aware of.

And there’s the challenge for artists and businesses.

As a user, there is no home screen. There is nothing to guide you. There is only what you remember, what’s top of mind. Which is why VUIs are sometimes referred to as ‘zero UI’.

I have hundreds of playlists on Spotify, but through Alexa I’ve only listened to around a dozen different playlists. When I feel like music that may or may not be contained inside one of my playlists, it’s easier to mentally navigate to an artist that plays music like that, than to remember the playlist. So you request the artist instead.

VUIs will make the branding of playlists crucial. For example, instead of asking for Alexa to play hiphop from Spotify, I requested their RapCaviar playlist, because I felt the former query’s outcome would be too unpredictable. As the music plays, I’m less aware of the artist names, as I don’t even see them anymore and I hardly ever bother asking. For music composed by artificial intelligence, this could be a great opportunity to enter our music listening habits.

The VUI pairs well with the connected home, which is why tech giants like Google, Amazon, and Apple are all using music as the trojan horse to get their home-controlling devices into our living rooms. They’re going to be the operating system for our houses, and that operating system will provide an invisible layer that we interact with through our voice.

Although many of the experiences through VUIs feel a bit limited currently, they’re supposed to get better over time (which is why Amazon calls their Alexa apps ‘skills’). And with AI improving and becoming more widespread, these skills will get better to the point that they can anticipate our intentions before we express them.

As voice-controlled user interfaces enter more of our lives, the question for artists, music companies, and startups is: how do we stand out when there is no visual component? How can you stay top of mind? How will people remember you?

Augmented reality

Google Glass was too early. Augmented reality will be nothing like it.

Instead of issuing awkward voice commands to a kind of head mounted smartphone, the media reality that augmented reality will take shape in is one of conversational interfaces through messaging apps, and voice user interfaces, that are part of connected smart environments, all utilizing powerful artificial intelligence.

You won’t have to issue requests, because you’ll see overlays with suggested actions that you can easily trigger. Voice commands are a last resort, and a sign of AI failing to predict your intent.

So what is music in that reality? In a way, we’re already there. Kids nowadays are not discovering music by watching professional video productions on MTV; they discover music because they see friends dancing to it on Musically or they applied some music-enabled Snapchat-filter. We are making ourselves part of the narrative of the music, we step into it, and forward our version of it into the world. Music is behaving like internet memes, because it’s just so easy to remix now.

One way in which augmented reality is going to change music, is that music will become ‘smart’. It will learn to understand our behaviour, our intentions, and adapt to it, just like other aspects of our lives would. Some of Amazon Alexa‘s most popular skills already include music and sound to augment our experience.

This is in line with the trend that music listeners are increasingly exhibiting a utilitarian orientation towards music; interacting with music not just for the aesthetic, but also its practical value through playlists to study, focus, workout, clean the house, relax and drink coffee, etc.

As it becomes easier to manipulate music, and make ourselves part of the narrative, perhaps the creation of decent sounding music will become easier too. Just have a look at AI-powered music creation and mastering startups such as Jukedeck, Amper, and LANDR. More interestingly, check out Aitokaiku‘s Vimu, which lets you create videos with reactive music (the music reacts to what you film).

Imagine releasing songs in such a way that fans can interact and share them this way, but even better since you’ll be able to use all the data from the smart sensors in the environment.

Imagine being able to bring your song, or your avatar, into a space shared by a group of friends. You can be like Pokemon.

It’s hard to predict what music will look like, but it’s safe to say that the changes music went through since the proliferation of the recording as the default way to listen to music are nothing compared to what’s coming in the years ahead. Music is about to become a whole lot more intelligent.


For more on how interfaces change the way we interact with music, I’ve previously written about how the interface design choices of pirate filesharing services such as Napster influence music streaming services like Spotify to this day.

If you like the concept about media realities and would like to get a better understanding of it, I recommend spending some time to go through Marshall McLuhan‘s work, as well as Timothy Leary‘s perspective on our digital reality in the 90s.

Four of the biggest opportunities for the future of music consumption

A reflection on key trends in music, tech, and user interfaces.

Soundcloud is saved, for now. On top of whatever strategic decisions they make to be able to attract follow-up investments, they face the difficult task of preserving their user community’s trust and winning back part of the trust they already lost. Tumultuous times are ahead, which will be frustrating, but also very exciting as it creates opportunity for new innovation and startups to claim their piece of the pie.

Underserved early adopter: the Myspace moment

Back in April I wrote about the fact that music is about to experience another Myspace moment. What I mean by that is that when Myspace hit decline, as it lost its community’s trust, new platforms got a chance as early adopters bailed and moved on. Musicians started building up audiences on Facebook and Twitter, and sharing their music on Soundcloud.

Now we see another Myspace moment: Spotify is focusing on mass audiences, and the prime early adopter platform has a distressed community due to the continuous struggles that Soundcloud has faced over the last years.

This creates opportunities for concepts such as:

  • Connecting groups of music listeners based on music taste or curiosity:
    • Soundcloud‘s struggling with this due to its failure to keep its search & tagging feature useful as the amount of content grew over the years, and they killed their groups feature;
    • Spotify has deprioritized user-created playlists and removed messaging functionality.
    • TheWaveVR could be one of the startups to fill this gap.
  • Collaboration and feedback:
    • If people are leaving Soundcloud, they need to take that somewhere else.
    • Audiu, which was one of the hottest startups at Sonar+D this year, could play a big role here.
  • Promo services for people who need an easy way to share music to journalists, labels, etc.

You could come up with a lot more ideas and find startups striving to make a meaningful impact there.

A third device in our midst: the Voice User Interface (VUI)

I’ve recently been playing around with an Amazon Alexa I ordered. At first I was skeptical and thought it would always feel awkward, but you get used to it fast and the convenience of a voice-controlled device in the living room (and other rooms) is bigger than I expected. I thought all those times you have to grab your mobile phone, or look something up on the computer, were minor and infrequent inconveniences. Now, the VUI has embedded itself into my life and all kinds of small habits, patterns and every day rituals.

VUIs are going to be the third device: first came PCs (plus laptops), then came smartphones (plus tablets), and now we’re going to get a third addition through voice-controlled devices like Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Apple‘s Siri-based devices, devices in the car, etc. Perhaps this is why Tesla is in talks to do a music streaming service: music is the way into these spaces.

So what happens to the way we browse and explore music when we take the visual user interface away? What place does the smartphone get? What place does the laptop get? And what behaviour extends to our smart speakers?

What happens in AI is very important for VUI apps, but also for chatbots.

Conversational interfaces: the rise of messaging apps

Messaging has frequently been called the next major platform. It enables chatbots, which are apps that live on conversational platforms (this is a trend that’s also strengthened by VUIs). Some of the biggest social platforms to rise up over the last decade were primarily messaging apps, such as  Snapchat, Whatsapp, Telegram, and Kik.

The next step of the social web is messaging, but smarter than the AIM, ICQ, and chatroom phase of social. Facebook is positioning Messenger in such a way that it can live as a platform on its own.

Read Music Ally‘s write-up of the chatbot panel I moderated at Midem.

Short-form video

I urge people to try out Instagram Stories and figure out what it takes to make good content for it. Short-form video content is so important in an age of short attention spans. Some of the hottest platforms to emerge among teens in the last years have been Snapchat and Musically, both limiting the time-length of videos being shared on the platforms. It’s fun, fast, and requires low commitment: making users share and explore more content.

I firmly believe this is going to change the way we write songs and structure them. We’ve already seen how the streaming playlist economy made tracks shorter, with people moving the vocals to the start of the track in order to make skips less likely. In the next years, the video story format is going to strongly impact music.

Instagram is another platform that may fare very well from the decline of user trust in Soundcloud‘s community.

 

I’ll be discussing more of these trends in my newsletter, which goes out every week on Monday. Sign up to stay in the loop.

AI-created non-human music will need human narratives

To me, it’s beyond a doubt that we’ll all be listening to AI-created music within a few decades, and probably much sooner. The most important way in for this type of music is mood playlists. After the first couple of songs on such playlists, most people tune the music out and get back to their main activity. Does it really matter who has created the song then? Does it matter whether they’re alive? Does it matter whether they’ve ever been alive at all?

[EDIT Aug 15: a small disclaimer since a piece linking here makes an incorrect claim. I don’t think all AI-created music needs a human narrative. I believe the future contains a lot of adaptive, and generative music. More on my point of view in this piece: Computers won’t have to be creative]

We are all creative, and therefore I think it doesn’t matter whether computers will be able to be creative. We are creative as listeners. Computers will be able to predict what we like, then test thousands of versions on playlists until they have the exact right version of the song. As a matter of fact, AI offers the prospect of personalized music, or music as precision medicine as The Sync Project calls it.

A point that’s made often is that AI-created music lacks part of the story people expect with music. People bring it up as an obstacle that can’t be overcome, but it feels like that’s just because of a decision to stop thinking as soon as the point is brought up. Let’s think further.

For one, I think AI-created music already is and will continue to be born in collaboration with people. People will increasingly take the role of curators of music created through algorithms. Secondly, why not give music a story?

Last week at IDAGIO Tech Talks, the music streaming service for classical music where I’m Product Director, we had the pleasure of hearing Ivan Yamshchikov talk about his neural network capable of music composition. With his colleague, Alexey Tikhonov, they fed their system 600 hours of compositions and had it compose a new work in the style of Scriabin. The human narrative was added at the end: as it was performed live by acclaimed musicians (see below).

This is how you get people to knowingly listen to music by artificial intelligence. Most consumption of AI music will be through ignorance of the source of the music. Yet people will warm up to the idea of AI being involved in the music creation process, just like they warmed up to electric guitars, samplers, and computers being used as instruments.

And that’s the narrative that will make it human: artificial intelligence as an instrument which requires a whole new skill set for artists to successfully work with it, and evoke in listeners what they want to.

My Midem wrap-up: Chatbots + marketing Run The Jewels panels

What a week. I spent it at Midem – one of the most well-known music business conferences organised every year in Cannes. Before I’m off to Sonár+D this week, I thought I’d type up a little update.

About 10 months ago, Midem‘s conference manager got in touch with me to see if we could put a panel together. We landed on the topic of chatbots and Messenger apps, because I think the trend signifies an important shift to a new generation of user interfaces (especially considering voice-activated UI, which will quickly be permeating our daily lives).

It was so great to finally be able to have all these people in the same room, and talk about what they’re doing, get their thoughts out, get them discussing with each other. And the line-up was awesome.

Panel: Messaging Apps, Bots, AI & Music: A New Frontier of Fan Engagement

A quick look at the line-up:

  • Ricardo Chamberlain, Digital Marketing Manager, Sony Music Entertainment (USA)
    Runs a very interesting label bot, which includes messages from artists such as Enrique Iglesias. He also worked on the CNCO campaign with Landmrk, which I’m a big fan of.
  • Luke Ferrar, Head of Digital, Polydor (UK)
    Launched the first chatbot with Bastille.
  • Gustavo Goldschmidt, CEO & Co-Founder, SuperPlayer (Brazil)
    Runs Brazil’s biggest streaming service which not only recommends music through a chatbot, but also builds chatbots for artists, which then drives fans to their service when they want to stream something.
  • Syd Lawrence, CEO & Co-Founder, The Bot Platform (UK)
    Launched the Hardwell bot, which is probably the most well-known example of chatbots being used in music.
  • Tim Heineke, Founder, POP (Netherlands)
    Used to run a cool startup named Shuffler.fm which turned blogs into radio stations and became a kind of StumbleUpon for music discovery, and also co-founded FUGA.
  • Nikoo Sadr, Interactive Marketing Manager, The Orchard (UK)
    One of the most brilliant minds in digital marketing, in general. Previously with Music Ally.

FULL VIDEO:

WRITE UP:

Messaging, bots, and AI’s music evolution by Music Ally’s Eamon Forde

Run The Jewels’ Marketing Panel

A few weeks ago, I was asked if I could also moderated the RTJ marketing panel — which would have been a no-brainer anyway, but having a personal connection to this, made me so excited to do it that I forgot to even introduce myself during the panel.

My first real music business job was with a startup called official.fm. As a student, I listened to a lot of underground and indie hiphop, which made me a big fan of the Definitive Jux label, which put out music by Aesop Rock, Mr. Lif, RJD2, and El-P (also one of the founders). The other founder was Amaechi Uzoigwe, who now manages Run The Jewels. I remember feeling a little starstruck at the time. Now, years later, it was so good to catch up with Amaechi and the inspiring success he’s created for RTJ and himself.

Also on the panel was Zena White, who’s MD of The Other Hand, and does great things for RTJ, Stones Throw, Ghostly, BadBadNotGood, DJ Shadow and more.

FULL VIDEO:

WRITE UP:

How Run The Jewels found fame & fortune: by focusing on fans by Music Ally’s Stuart Dredge

Computers won’t have to be creative

Every discussion about creative AI sooner or later invites the same objection: “computers will never be able to be creative.”

It’s interesting to think about. One has to define creativity. One has to understand the implications of machine learning and artificial intelligence. Then you have to carefully construct an opinion, and prediction, on whether we’ll ever get to the point of computers being creative – without human involvement.

The problem is, you can think about it for weeks, but at its root it may be as philosophical a question to answer as “does free will truly exist?”

So whenever someone raises that objection I wave it away, because it’s not important whether computers can be creative.

Everyone will agree that human beings have the ability to be creative. We have our imagination. We use it to create: outside us, but also inside our heads. Our perception of the world is creative. It’s why some paintings are enjoyable to us. It’s why children can play with inanimate objects and imagine vast worlds in front of them.

That’s why I believe, no matter what happens, that computers are going to be making great music that can compete with human-created music. Imagine a type of computer-generated Soundcloud, where everything that’s not listened is instantly weeded out. Algorithms will be able to determine what sucks and what will never work, so 90% of the output can be filtered beforehand, or doesn’t even have to be generated.

But for you, as a listener, it’s actually not important whether a computer made the music or a human being… especially when you won’t be able to hear the difference.

Sure, putting on an album by your favourite singer is hard to replace… but there are also moments where you tune into a playlist for sports, for focus, or whatever. Five or ten years from now, can you be 100% sure that all the songs you hear in that playlist are made by humans? Will you think: “Oh, this song is an AI song, because it doesn’t sound creative”?

Of course not.

It’s not important whether AI can be creative, when the recipient is creative.